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Trump’s Ukraine policy: is there a real shift?

global.espreso.tv
Fri, 11 Jul 2025 15:00:00 +0300
Trump’s Ukraine policy: is there a real shift?
The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue of whether Trump has changed his position on Ukraine.There is currently active discussion online about insider information from American media outlets regarding a possible shift in Trump's support for Ukraine.The author says that while a change in Trump’s rhetoric is evident, it is more accurate to consider a change in position over time.The author warns that assuming a “change has been achieved” would repeat the Kremlin's main mistake. According to the author, the Kremlin’s critical error was perceiving favorable conditions as permanent, including:Trump’s perceived loyalty to Putin;Witkoff acting as an intermediary between the Kremlin and Trump;Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk as media figures who legitimized Kremlin theses for Trump;The initial political limitations of Kellogg and Rubio in Trump’s early administration.The author believes Moscow wrongly assumed these factors would remain stable, ignoring that dynamics in politics are variable and dependent on many factors.At the beginning of the year, the author wrote that Trump believed he was doing Putin a “favor,” which Putin saw as weakness and victory. However, geopolitical realities ultimately prevailed.Witkoff, who tried to manage all major foreign policy tracks at once, failed to implement any within five months, including Kremlin promises made through Putin’s envoy Dmitriev. Tucker and Musk also lost favor with Trump, and their influence faded.Meanwhile, Kellogg and Rubio began regaining influence about 2–3 months ago, gradually and without forcing events, so as not to disrupt momentum. Key turning points included the SignalGate scandal and the transfer of Waltz’s powers to Rubio, strengthening him significantly. Witkoff’s failures in Iran and Gaza contributed to this shift.The author emphasizes that Kyiv’s key task now is not to repeat the Kremlin’s mistakes by assuming the change is permanent. Change remains variable and can shift depending on context.If the insider information is confirmed, the author believes that the European-Ukrainian tactic of giving Trump a “warm bath” was a correct approach.Regarding the insider information itself, the author identifies three main points:Trump may use the remaining powers under Biden’s Presidential Drawdown Authority to provide assistance in consumables like missiles and ammunition.The sale of air defense systems to NATO countries with the right of free disposal. This way, Trump would not be directly violating his pre-election principles on military aid to Ukraine since the weapons are purchased by NATO countries (such as Germany and the Netherlands planning to buy Patriot missiles). The White House is not restricting their transfer to a third country. This aligns with Ursula von der Leyen’s recent statement that weapons provided to Ukraine will count toward European countries’ NATO 5% spending commitment.Trump’s announcement of an “amazing Monday” should be viewed cautiously. Nevertheless, it is likely that Graham-Blumenthal bill will be given the green light on Monday.U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is disappointed with Russia and promised to make an important announcement about it on Monday.U.S. leader Donald Trump is planning for the first time to provide weapons to Ukraine directly from American stockpiles, using his presidential powers.
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