Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov has stated that, based on current business sentiment, Russia is on the verge of falling into recession.

Source: Russian news agency Interfax

Quote: "According to the figures, we have a cooling in the economy. But all our figures are like looking in a rearview mirror. Based on current business sentiment, it seems that we are already on the verge of a recession," Reshetnikov said.

Details:Responding to journalists’ questions about a potential recession, Reshetnikov stressed: "I did not predict that we would fall into recession, I said that we are on the verge, and everything depends on our decisions."

In late May 2025, Reshetnikov noted risks of economic "hypothermia" despite slowing inflation. "We also see the risks of economic hypothermia in the current regime," he warned.

Background:

• The fact that the Russian Federation is significantly increasing the likelihood of a scenario in which the economy can slow down to a technical recession faster than inflation can be curbed was reported back in February. The relevant documents were prepared for internal discussion by the Russian government.
• Lower oil prices, budgetary constraints and rising non-performing corporate debt are among the key economic risks facing Russia. Of particular concern is the possible increase in oil production in the US and OPEC countries.
• Earlier it was reported that the Chinese currency has failed to replace the traditional dollar and euro for Russians. Russian banks began to offer significant deposits in yuan after they began to fall under successive sanctions and lost the opportunity to work with dollars and euros. The foreign exchange of household funds in banks is constantly decreasing and by the end of April fell to a record low of 5.4%.
• It was also reported that the revenues of the Russian Federation from the export of oil and oil products fell in May 2025 due to falling prices. In May, Russia’s revenues from oil and petroleum products exports decreased by US$0.48 billion compared to April to US$12.6 billion. They were US$4 billion lower compared to May 2024 levels.

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